Analysis of government bonds and prediction of their development after the pandemic caused by COVID-19

Abstract

This paper describes the current state of the government bond market and predicts the future development of government bond yields using the yield curve to bond maturity, spot yield curve, credit rating and simple prediction. The ongoing economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is changing the lives of many people. In order for each individual country to help its households, prevent mass job lay-offs and high mortality, their fiscal budget deficits are growing to unexpected heights. The aim of this paper is to analyse government bonds as one of the tools that can help both the state and individual households at this time. Government bond yields are analysed and compared with other countries based on the development of government bonds using credit ratings, yield curves to maturity, spot yield curves and simple historical development of government bonds from the previous economic crisis in 2008. Based on the results, we conclude that countries severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent mortality, such as Italy, have a relatively stable yield. In contrast, for countries such as the Czech Republic and South Korea, yields to maturity at both ends are relatively declining.