Analysis of Future Vehicle Fuel Demand and Direct CO2 Emissions in China

Abstract

A bottom-up methodology was employed to estimate the stock of future vehicles, including passenger vehicles, taxis, urban transit buses, non-operating buses, heavy duty trucks, medium duty trucks, logistics trucks and sanitation trucks, among 31 provinces in China. With the projection of future vehicle stock in China, we calculated the fuel demand and direct CO2 emission from 2015 to 2050 for every five-year period and made an assessment on the potential of different fuel pathways to reduce direct CO2 emission and fuel demand with the methodology established. This study showed that the growth of vehicle stock will reach its saturation point in about 2045. As projected, China’s vehicle population will reach 278, 481, and 546 million by 2020, 2030, and 2050 respectively. This study also shows that the fuel demand for vehicles will keep increasing until its peak in 2030, and then decline until 2050. Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) contribute the most to the energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction in the short term before 2020, while in the medium and long term, new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles (EVs), will contribute more significantly and account the main proportion of the reduction.