Abstract
A thermal comfort index for the Northeast of Brazil was analyzed for two scenarios of climatic changes, A1B and A2, for 2021-2080, and compared with the reference period 1961-1990. A technique of regionalization was applied to rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data from meteorological stations, obtained by statistical downscaling of projections from four global climate models. The results pointed to a significant reduction of rainfall and an increase of temperature for three different climatically homogeneous subregions. Regarding the thermal comfort index, the results point to an increase in days with heat discomfort between 2021 and 2080. In the northern portion, the higher percentage of days with heat discomfort will be significant since the first half of the period under appreciation, i.e., from 2021 to 2050. Conversely, in the eastern of northeastern Brazil, the increase of days with heat discomfort should happen in the period from 2051 to 2080, whereas the central-western part of the region, which, in the reference period, had recorded less than 1% of days with heat discomfort, might see an elevation of that percentage to 7% between 2021 and 2050, potentially reaching 48% of its days made uncomfortable by heat between 2051 and 2080.
Highlights
Thermal comfort can be defined as the psychological condition of an individual that expresses satisfaction regarding the thermal conditions offered by the surrounding environment
The calculation of the Kawamura discomfort index (KDI) is based on the average ambient temperature (T, in °C) and the dew point (Td, in °C), which is a function of the Relative Humidity (RH), given that it is the temperature at which water vapor condensates
Considering that the downscaling process provides results solely for PRCP, TX and TN, we found out that it is possible to obtain relative humidity (RH) values that are much closer to the observed ones by resorting to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), with PCRP, TX and TN being used as predictors for RH
Summary
Thermal comfort can be defined as the psychological condition of an individual that expresses satisfaction regarding the thermal conditions offered by the surrounding environment. Thermal comfort happens whenever there is a thermal balance in the exchange of heat between the individual’s body and the environment in the absence of regulatory sweat (Fanger 1970). Extreme conditions of discomfort by heat or cold lead to serious consequences to human health, occasionally including death. Such problems have been intensified by anthropic activities that have interfered with the natural variability of the climate (Molion & Lucio 2013), due to the addition of thousands of tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere every year
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