Analysis of Flood Risk Due to Sea Level Rise in the Menor Sea (Murcia, Spain)

Antonio Martínez-Graña,Fernando Santos-Francés,José Goy,Teresa Bardají,Diego Gómez,Caridad Zazo

doi:10.3390/su10030780

Antonio Martínez-Graña, Fernando Santos-Francés + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su10030780

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Abstract

This article analyzes the coastal vulnerability and flood risk due to sea level rise in the Menor Sea, Murcia (Spain). The vulnerability has been estimated from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery using Remote Sensing techniques. The risk of coastal flooding was calculated based on various time scenarios (X0-current, X1-100 years, X2-500 years, X3-1000 years, X4-Storm, X5-Tsunami). Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing techniques were used to build a regional model to predict changes in the mean sea level for several future scenarios, showing susceptible areas to be flooded. We have included new parameters to the model such as swell, mareal range or neotectonic factors aiming to better adjust it to the local conditions. The results showed a high risk of flooding in the barrier beach and coastal areas of the Menor Sea, with a medium to very high degree of vulnerability for the most populated and touristic areas. The maximum and minimum expected increase of the water sheet for the 100 year scenarios ranged from +4.22 to +5.69 m. This methodology can establish sectors that need structural measures to minimize the impact of the sea level rise occurring due to natural tendency in the short or long term, as well as by extreme events such as storm surges or tsunamis. Furthermore, it can be used in other areas to assist land management decision makers to reduce or mitigate the vulnerability and risk presented against the rise of the sea level.

Highlights

The analysis of climatic variations is important for understanding how to directly influence the physical and biological dynamics of the environment [1], so it is necessary to establish short and long term changes that affect human activity
The results showed a high risk of flooding in the barrier beach and coastal areas of the Menor Sea, with a medium to very high degree of vulnerability for the most populated and touristic areas
The procedure used in this work allows the accurate and effective delimiting of the coastal areas with risk of flooding due to sea level rise, at a low economic cost at early stages of coastal planning

Summary

Introduction

The analysis of climatic variations is important for understanding how to directly influence the physical and biological dynamics of the environment [1], so it is necessary to establish short and long term changes that affect human activity. Recent global studies indicate a sustained rise since the late nineteenth century, with a change in this trend and even a certain acceleration in the rise for the second half of the twentieth century [1]. This trend has been recorded by different tide gauges since 1880, and from 1993 to 2011 was ascertained using altimetric data retrieved by the satellites: Topex-Poseidon, Jason 1 and OSTM-Jason 2 [9,10]. The major contributors to the rise of the mean sea level are the thermal expansion and the ice sheets/glacier melting They are as a consequence of warmer conditions of the oceanic water and atmosphere respectively. Tectonics and salinity affect at local scale [9,10]

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