Analysis of first generation MANPAD attacks on fast jets

Abstract

The proliferation of early generation Man-Portable Air-Defence (MANPAD) weapon worldwide results in a significant threat to all aircraft. To develop successful countermeasures to the MANPAD a more detailed understanding of the factors affecting the missile engagement is needed. This paper discusses the use of CounterSim, a missile engagement and countermeasure simulation software tool, to model such scenarios. The work starts by analysing simple engagements of a first generation MANPAD against a fast jet with no countermeasures being employed. The engagement simulations cover typical MANPAD ranges and aircraft altitudes quoted in open source literature. From this set of base runs, individual engagements are chosen for further analysis. These may have resulted in hits, misses or near misses. At each time interval in the simulation the aircraft and missile velocities are used to calculate a projected point of closest approach. This is then compared with the simulated impact point. The difference is defined as the ▵d error and plots are produced for hits, misses and near misses. Features of the ▵d error plots are investigated to gain insights into the potential countermeasure capability. Finally, the analysis of the ▵d error plots is used to investigate the possibility of replicating the factors in a simulation that produce a miss through a pre-emptive flare deployment.