Analysis of fatalities and injuries in building fire statistics

Abstract

Fire statistics derived from the US National fire Incident Reporting System for apartment fires during 1993 are analysed. The aim is to determine the fire characteristics that result in the greatest risk of casualties, as well as the personal characteristics that put occupants at risk. Modern statistical tools, namely Generalized Linear Models together with Analysis of Deviance, are used to identify and quantify the effect of the most significant fire-related factors and personal factors. Four types of measures of danger to occupants are considered. The fire-related factor categories that are identified as having the greatest effect are: • the extent of fire damage, • the area of fire origin, • the type of material ignited and the ignition factor. The most significant personal factors are: • the condition preventing escape, • the condition before injury, • the activity at time of injury, • the location at ignition and the cause of injury. Extension of the proposed methodology to other types of buildings, other time periods and other countries can be expected to make an important contribution to the development of effective strategies for ensuring building fire safety.