Analysis of factors influencing the energy efficiency in Chinese wastewater treatment plants through machine learning and SHapley Additive exPlanations

Abstract

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) contribute significantly to the control of pollution in water. However, they are significant energy consumers. Identifying the factors influencing energy consumption is crucial for enhancing the energy efficiency of WWTPs. To address this, the unit energy consumption (UEC) of WWTPs was predicted using machine learning models. In order to accurately evaluate WWTPs' energy utilization efficiency, a comprehensive energy evaluation indicator, UEC (kWh/kg TODremoved) was utilized in this study. Among the prediction models, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) achieves the highest prediction accuracy. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was adopted as the model explanation system, and the results revealed that UEC was negatively affected by TN concentration, which was the most influential factor. The stoichiometry-based model calculation result indicates that the nitrification consumes average 77 % of the overall oxygen demand. SHAP analysis illustrated that the UEC of main technologies decreases with increasing influential factors. Partial dependence plot (PDP) compared average UEC of these technologies and SBR consumed the least amount of energy. The research also indicated that low influent TN concentration is the main problem in China. Consequently, it is imperative to exert efforts in ensuring the influent TN concentration while simultaneously making appropriate adjustments to the treatment process. This study provides valuable implications and methods for retrofitting and upgrading WWTPs.