Abstract
To analyze the influencing factors of the emergency linkage of gas explosion accidents and their causal relationships, a method for analyzing the influencing factors of the emergency linkage of gas explosion accidents is proposed based on a hierarchical holographic model and Bayesian networks. Firstly, based on the hierarchical holographic model to determine the main influencing factors of the accident emergency linkage, we constructed the topological structure model of accident control, secondary disaster, and emergency rescue, and used the triangular fuzzy number to assess the a priori probability and conditional probability of the influencing factors. Next, the most likely factors affecting the accident emergency linkage are quickly identified by combining Bayesian diagnostic reasoning. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the key factors affecting the accident emergency linkage. The results show that the probability of normal operation of gas explosion accident emergency linkage is 78.1%, but when the coal mine environment changes, especially when multiple influencing factors occur simultaneously, the probability of normal operation of accident emergency linkage decreases significantly. Through causal analysis, the degree of influence on the operation of the accident emergency linkage in different situations can be deduced. Through diagnostic analysis, it can be seen that the emergency linkage operation is more sensitive to the two factors of the ventilation and smoke extraction system response and gas over limit, so it is necessary to pay attention to its important role in accident treatment. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis shows that the response of the ventilation and smoke extraction system, the accuracy of disaster sharing, the gas over limit, the technical level of the operators, and the team rescue experience are the key factors affecting the emergency response linkage in accidents. This study can provide theoretical guidance for the improvement of the emergency response linkage mechanism of coal mine gas explosion accidents as well as the decision-making of the accidents, minimize the losses of the accidents, and promote the sustainable development of the coal mining industry.
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