Analysis of Extreme Temperature Events over the Iberian Peninsula during the 21st Century Using Dynamic Climate Projections Chosen Using Max-Stable Processes

Abstract

Due to climate change, the Iberian Peninsula is suffering an increasing trend of extreme temperature events. The main objective of this study is to analyse this trends in frequency, duration and intensity of warm events and heat waves. The datasets used are 14 different regionalized dynamic climate projections. We choose the projections that present a spatial dependence similar to that of observed data. The spatial dependence is calculated by adjusting the data to max-stable processes. The observed data belong to the SPAIN02 grid for the period 1961–2000. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen estimator to calculate model trends in the future period (2011–2099). We have studied future extreme temperature events using two different definitions. One varying the threshold for each period and the other keeping it constant. The results show that the variability of maximum temperatures is decreasing for the western region of the Peninsula, while the Mediterranean area will see an increase in this variability. There will be an increase in the frequency of warm events for the southwestern corner of the Peninsula. Also, maximum temperatures will be higher in this area at the end of the century. However, in the Mediterranean region the warm events will last longer. Heat waves will be more frequent throughout the territory and more lasting in the Mediterranean area. We also found that studying extreme events using a varying threshold allows these events to be studied from the point of view of the variability of maximum temperatures, while if the study is carried out maintaining the threshold constant the results will be more direct.