Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Trends in Sicily for the Evaluation of Depth-Duration-Frequency Curves in Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

AbstractThe design of urban drainage systems and the development of flood mitigation strategies commonly require knowledge of extreme rainfall for a given return period. In the context of climate variability that is no longer imputable to only natural forces, the estimation of this variable represents a critical issue. Climate change effects, particularly on precipitation, should be considered in the design and planning of hydraulics infrastructures. The aim of this study is to provide an assessment of the effects of statistically significant trends in extreme rainfall on the rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves for the return periods typically used in design in order to obtain useful information for the definition of DDF curves in climate change scenarios. The study was applied in Sicily, in the center of the Mediterranean Area, because the study may provide interesting insights in a highly populated coastal region. The first step of the study consisted of the detection and quantification of tr...