ANALYSIS OF EXPORT-LED GROWTH MODEL FOR TÜRKİYE ECONOMY WITH MARKOV REGIME SWITCHING MODEL

Abstract

Research on the export-led growth model is significant due to the contribution of exports to the development of domestic sectors and its positive impact on national values, especially employment and growth. Therefore, countries prefer the export-led growth model by increasing their export volumes with an outward-oriented policy. When Turkiye's growth figures are analyzed, it is feasible to say that there is a strong connection between exports and economic growth. In this study, within the framework of export-led growth hypotheses, the additive of exports to Turkiye's growth dynamics between 1980 and 2022 is investigated. The aim of the study is to econometrically test the intercourse between exports and GDP in the Turkiye economy. In the analysis, first linear unit root analyses were implemented. Then, the dynamic correlation relationship between exports and GDP was analyzed with DCC-GARCH, and the dynamic regression relationship was performed with the Markov regime switching model. As a consequence of the examines, it was seen that the dynamic correlation indicators and Markov model results were consistent with each other. While it was found that the correlation decreased during the high volatility period, a decrease in the number of regressions was observed according to the Markov model results.