Analysis of Environmental Sustainability by Causal Loop Diagram and System Dynamic Model - A Case of the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract

The booming tourism industry has always played a vital role in the Australian economy. However, with the influx of tourists, the ecological environment of many scenic spots has been destroyed. As one of the typical areas in Australia, the Great Barrier Reef is suffering an increasing number of coral death due to natural disasters and man-made destruction. This study identifies the key variables and estimates the data collected from multiple channels, through building causal loop diagrams and system dynamic model to specifies the logic relationship between different variables and impact factors, and then further quantify their effects and analyze the interplay of them to clarify how they affect the ecological environment and business development of the Great Barrier Reef. The running results of the system dynamic model are consistent with the actual situation of the Great Barrier Reef, it provides a tangible future prediction of the Great Barrier Reef and puts forward the point that if the governments fail to take effective intervention measures, the mortality rate of coral reefs will continue to increase until they disappear completely in a few decades.