Analysis of energy-saving and environmental benefits from power structure adjustment in China: A comparative study from 2020 to 2060

Abstract

The power industry plays a major role in achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality. China needs a power industry with deep decarbonization and high energy efficiency in the next 40 years. The adjustment of electric power structure mainly contains two parts: (1) The transition of thermal power generation to renewable energy power generation. (2) The transition of low-parameter thermal power generating to high-parameter thermal power generating. Here this paper predicted the total power-generating capacity in the future 40 years using multivariable linear regression and LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) methods. Afterwards, based on baseline and policy-driven (China's energy and electric power development plan in 2030 and prospect in 2060) scenarios, this study projected the proportions of different power generation technologies/different parameters of thermal power plants using Origin and historical data. This research also used LCI (life cycle inventory) to obtain energy-saving and environmental benefits in the transitions of thermal energy to renewable energy power generation/low-parameter to high-parameter thermal power generating. Results showed that in policy-driven scenario, wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach 36.5% and 36.9% of total power generation respectively by 2060. Moreover, renewable and new energy power generation will save 5780 million tons standard coal and 14,512 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2060. Super thermal power generation, however, was predicted to expand 1690 billion kWh from 2017 to 2050 for its large environmental benefits but phase out gradually from 2050 to 2060 to achieve Chinese government's “carbon neutrality” goal.