Abstract
Widespread introduction of low energy buildings (LEBs), passive houses, and zero emission buildings (ZEBs) are national target in Norway. In order to achieve better energy performance in these types of buildings and successfully integrate them in energy system, reliable planning and prediction techniques for heat energy use are required. However, the issue of energy planning in LEBs currently remains challenging for district heating companies. This article proposed an improved methodology for planning and analysis of domestic hot water and heating energy use in LEBs based on energy signature method. The methodology was tested on a passive school in Oslo, Norway. In order to divide energy signature curve on temperature dependent and independent parts, it was proposed to use piecewise regression. Each of these parts were analyzed separately. The problem of dealing with outliers and selection of the factors that had impact of energy was considered. For temperature dependent part, the different methods of modelling were compared by statistical criteria. The investigation showed that linear multiple regression model resulted in better accuracy in the prediction than SVM, PLS, and LASSO models. In order to explain temperature independent part of energy signature the hourly profiles of energy use were developed.
Highlights
Prediction of building’s heat energy use is a complex task
It is not always possible to collect all the variables when it comes to real operation, correlation analysis aimed to identify factors that have the highest impact on analysed parameter and to reduce the total number of components
It can be concluded that improvements made to regression model led to better prediction capability
Summary
Prediction of building’s heat energy use is a complex task. This issue becomes challenging for district heating (DH) companies when heat energy planning is considered. The DH energy load include energy need for heating and domestic hot water (DHW). These days low energy buildings (LEBs) such as passive houses (PHs) and zero emission buildings (ZEBs) are set as a national target for achieving energy efficiency and increase in primary energy savings. Characteristics of energy use in these types of building and their interactions with energy system are not fully investigated. The introduction of newly constructed LEBs and renovation of existing buildings to LEB standard brings additional volatility to heat demand in energy system
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