Abstract
To reduce the impact of a natural or man-made disaster, an evacuation is often implemented to transfer the population in the potentially impacted area to a safe zone. Evacuation is an effective measure for dealing with emergency events. This paper presents a multinomial logit model for modal choice behavior in a short-notice emergency evacuation, which incorporates spatial indicators into the utility function. The study examined the determinants of evacuees’ modal choice for three evacuation distances and analyzed determinants impacting the mechanism of the modal choice decision process. The data collected in Xi’an was used to provide empirical evidence for the relationship between spatial indicators and modal choice behavior. The findings of this study will help emergency planners and policy-makers develop strategies for evacuation planning and will enable a better understanding of emergency modal choice behaviors.
Highlights
Modal choice is a complex decision process in daily life routine
This paper proposes a short-notice emergency evacuation modal choice model that includes the influences of spatial indicators
This study developed a multinomial logit model to analyze modal choice behavior for three levels of evacuation distance
Summary
Modal choice is a complex decision process in daily life routine. It can be influenced by a wide range of factors. This paper proposes a short-notice emergency evacuation modal choice model that includes the influences of spatial indicators (density, diversity, and design of transportation system). Astrid [8] defined modal choice as the decision-making process of choosing between different transport alternatives, which is determined by a combination of individual socio-demographic factors. These characteristic variables are categorized into four groups: socio-demographic indicators, journey characteristic indicators, psychological indicators, and spatial indicators. Travel cost is not a significant factor in modal choice; in this study, the perception was more about the estimation accuracy rate for travel time and other subjective judgements that can influence modal choice decision. Kenworthy and Laube [16] reported that vehicle usage increases significantly with increasing road network density
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