Analysis of Electricity Consumption Potential of Shaanxi Residents Based on LMDI and ARIMA Model

Abstract

Determining the growth drivers of residential electricity consumption and future growth potential have important reference value for power supply companies to control market changes. This paper statistically calculates the per capita disposable income, per capita housing area, urbanization process, resident population, household registration population, and household electricity consumption from 2000 to 2016. Combining the Pearson correlation analysis method and the LMDI index decomposition method this paper analyzes the motivation of residents' electricity consumption growth in Shaanxi Province, and effectively solves the problem that the selection factors are too subjective and the decomposition result is not accurate. The results of the study indicate that economic growth and living conditions are important factors. Combined with the influence of ARIMA time series method and related policies, it is estimated that the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption of Shaanxi residents during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period is 8.81%, of which economic growth and living conditions are still the two factors with the largest impact.