Abstract
This paper aims to analyze national policies of Pakistan taking into account the complexity of electric power generation, growth, and complying with multilateral agreements. Systems thinking has been applied to understand the complexity of energy scenario of Pakistan by representing it with a causal loop diagram (CLD) which displays the interconnectedness and feedbacks of the system. Analysis is based on systems archetypes to diagnose the system behavior, i.e., falling into the vicious cycle of coal. A stock-and-flow model was employed to capture dynamics of energy generation quantitatively, indicating that a 5% GDP growth rate could be sustained based on current planning to increase electric power generation in Pakistan. Thus, in order to achieve a 7% GDP growth rate, as targeted in Vision 2025 of Pakistan, energy generation targets would need to be revised in the view of the sensitivity of increase in energy demand associated with GDP growth rate, while ensuring compliance with multilateral agreements.
Highlights
IntroductionA stock-and-flow model was employed to capture dynamics of energy generation quantitatively, indicating that a 5% GDP growth rate could be sustained based on current planning to increase electric power generation in Pakistan
Key model equations to represent the dynamics of electric power generation in Pakistan are presented here
The cumulative energy demand is calculated by using Equation (1): CED = CED (t − dt) + OED ∗ dt where, CED = Cumulative energy demand (MW), OED = Overall energy demand (MW/yr), dt = Delta time, (1)
Summary
A stock-and-flow model was employed to capture dynamics of energy generation quantitatively, indicating that a 5% GDP growth rate could be sustained based on current planning to increase electric power generation in Pakistan. To fulfill the energy demands of economic and social growth, focus on low-carbon power-generating sources has come into the limelight, causing a shift from conventional fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels to minimize the harmful ecological and environmental impacts. Renewable energy sources have been showing promising prospects in fulfilling the energy needs of the future which may compensate for the depletion of fossil fuels in the near future [2]. Nuclear power generation technology has seen significant growth in recent years because of various factors including energy supply security and an ability to provide a consistent base load power [5].
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