Abstract
This paper analyzes the electric energy substitution potential on the basis of reelectrification target. First, various kinds of energy are covered into equivalent electricity in terms of the calorific value. Second, the total equivalent electricity is calculated according to the energy consumed by sectors. Third, the total final energy consumption is obtained by subtracting the transformation cost, loss and the non-energy usage consumption from the total primary energy supply. Finally, the expected electricity is obtained by multiplying the final energy consumption with the target of electrification rate and the potential of energy substitution is evaluated by subtracting current power from the expected electricity. Besides, the proposed scheme is applied to evaluate the potential of electricity energy substitution in 2020, 2030 and 2050 as examples.
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