ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY OF FIRE DANGER INDICES IN FOREST FIRE PREDICTION

Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira Torres,Gumercindo Souza Lima,Sebastião Venâncio Martins,Sebastião Renato Valverde

doi:10.1590/1806-90882017000200009

Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira Torres, Gumercindo Souza Lima + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-90882017000200009

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Journal: Revista Árvore	Publication Date: Jun 26, 2017
Citations: 6	License type: cc-by

Affiliation: Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Abstract

ABSTRACT Despite the existence of different fire danger indices, the use of an inefficient index can lead to making wrong decisions on the appropriate procedures for preventing and fighting forest fires, while a trusted prediction index can help the most quantification and allocation of resources for prevention. Thereat, the objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency of Fire Weather Index (FWI), Logarithmic of Telicyn Index, Nesterov Index, cumulative indexes of precipitation - evaporation (P-EVAP) and evaporation / precipitation (EVAP/P), Monte Alegre Index (FMA) and Monte Alegre Changed Index (FMA+) in the prediction of forest fires for the city of Viçosa (MG). The indices were compared using the method known as Skill Score (SS) taking into account the days that the indexes pointed to the risk of events with focus fire identified by satellite images on the 01/01/2005 to 31/12/2014 period. According to the results, the Logarithm of Telicyn Index (0.53257) as the most efficient for the study area, followed by the indices EVAP/P (0.46553), P-EVAP (0.43724), Nesterov (0.40445), FWI (0.39213), FMA+(0.34595) and FMA (0.28982).

Highlights

Regions recognized as possessing the potential for forest fires need to be monitored
Thereat, the objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency of Fire Weather Index (FWI), Logarithmic of Telicyn Index, Nesterov Index, cumulative indexes of precipitation - evaporation (P-EVAP) and evaporation / precipitation (EVAP/P), Monte Alegre Index (FMA) and Monte Alegre Changed Index (FMA+) in the prediction of forest fires for the city of Viçosa (MG)
The indices were compared using the method known as Skill Score (SS) taking into account the days that the indexes pointed to the risk of events with focus fire identified by satellite images on the 01/01/2005 to 31/12/2014 period

Summary

Introduction

Regions recognized as possessing the potential for forest fires need to be monitored. Significant meteorological variables like fire risk must be studied to facilitate the provision of subsidies for prevention and control, as well as infrastructure and team dimension, including monitoring and checking the number of occurrences (Deppe et al, 2004). Risk indexes, based on meteorological data enable the quantitative estimation of the occurrence of forest fires; over time they have become reliable tools for the assessment of the potential risk of regional fires (Holsten et al, 2013). To estimate a fire risk, these indexes normally involve a set of variables (wind, precipitation, temperature and relative air humidity) that include the major factors that play a part in forest fire initiation and propagation (Huesca et al, 2009). A good prediction index, will facilitate greater quantification and distribution of the prevention resources

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