Abstract
In tropical and subtropical regions of eastern and South-eastern Asia, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur frequently. Previous studies indicate an association between meteorological variables and dengue incidence using time series analyses. The impacts of meteorological changes can affect dengue outbreak. However, difficulties in collecting detailed time series data in developing countries have led to common use of monthly data in most previous studies. In addition, time series analyses are often limited to one area because of the difficulty in collecting meteorological and dengue incidence data in multiple areas. To gain better understanding, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on dengue incidence in three geographically distinct areas (Ratnapura, Colombo, and Anuradhapura) of Sri Lanka by time series analysis of weekly data. The weekly average maximum temperature and total rainfall and the total number of dengue cases from 2005 to 2011 (7 years) were used as time series data in this study. Subsequently, time series analyses were performed on the basis of ordinary least squares regression analysis followed by the vector autoregressive model (VAR). In conclusion, weekly average maximum temperatures and the weekly total rainfall did not significantly affect dengue incidence in three geographically different areas of Sri Lanka. However, the weekly total rainfall slightly influenced dengue incidence in the cities of Colombo and Anuradhapura.
Highlights
Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur in most tropical and subtropical regions and are the most important emerging arboviral diseases worldwide
Descriptive Analysis Characteristics of meteorological variables and dengue incidence differed between study areas (Figure 2)
impulse response function (IRF) analyses presented in Figure 6 describe the influence of shock variables on the other endogenous variables in vector autoregressive model (VAR). These analyses indicate that shocks of the maximum temperature and total rainfall had no effect on dengue incidence in any of the study areas. This manuscript defines the influence of meteorological factors on dengue incidence using time series analysis of the weekly average maximum temperature and total rainfall from 2005 to 2011 in three geographically distinct areas of Sri Lanka: Ratnapura, Colombo, and Anuradhapura
Summary
Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur in most tropical and subtropical regions and are the most important emerging arboviral diseases worldwide. The endemic area for dengue extends over 60 countries [1,2,3]. It is estimated that tens of millions of people develop DF, and approximately 500,000 people develop DHF. Dengue causes more than 20,000 deaths per year, and approximately 2.5 billion people live in dengue-endemic countries [4]. Dengue virus infection in humans causes a spectrum of illness, ranging from asymptomatic or mild febrile illness to severe and fatal hemorrhagic disease [5]. The spectrum of clinical illness includes undifferentiated fever, classic DF, DHF, and dengue shock syndrome (DSS)
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