Analysis of Effect of Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Exchange Rates, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Reserves on the Oil and Gas and the Non-Oil and Gas Imports in Indonesia

Abstract

International trade is one of the efforts to increase the country's growth and economy, Indonesia is one of the countries that carry out international trade in the import of goods and services in the form of oil and gas and non-oil and gas. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of Real Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Foreign Exchange Reserves on Oil and Gas and Non-Oil and Gas Imports in Indonesia in the period 1991 to 2021.This study uses annual data based on Indonesian financial statistics published by Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. Based on the results of the unit root test, the most appropriate model used in this study is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. indicated by R-Squared on oil and gas imports of 0.949479 or 94.9479% and R-Squaured on non-oil and gas imports of 0.908210 or 90.8210%, partially in the short term Real Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, and Inflation are positively and significantly related to imports oil and gas and non-oil and gas, foreign exchange reserves only have a positive and significant effect on oil and gas imports in the short term, in the long term Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rate have a significant and negative effect on oil and gas imports and then no significant effect on non-oil and gas imports, Inflation has a significant effect and positive on oil and gas and non-oil and gas imports in the long term, foreign exchange reserves have a significant and positive effect on oil and gas imports but do not have a significant and negative effect on non-oil and gas imports in the long term. Keywords: Real GDP, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Oil And Non-Oil Imports