Abstract
Tourism is the leading industry of island cities and the tourism carrying capacity is of great significance to the sustainable development of cities. This paper adopts the state-space model to construct an early warning indicator system for tourism carrying capacity from three aspects: nature, economy, and society, explores the early warning status, and spatial and temporal differences of tourism carrying capacity in Chinese island cities, and makes use of the BP(Back Propagation) neural network model to predict the development trend of early warnings. The results show that (1) from 2012 to 2018, the early warning status of China’s island cities’ tourism carrying capacity is generally on the rise, the natural carrying capacity system’s early warning situation has deteriorated, which is in a state of severe warning interval. The economic carrying capacity and social carrying capacity are on the rise, and the warning degree is from the super warning interval to the severe warning interval and then to the moderate warning degree. The forecast of the overall tourism carrying capacity early warning index from 2019 to 2021 presents an upward trend and is in the moderate warning interval. (2) The tourism carrying capacity early warning in China’s island cities shows a large spatial and temporal difference and the early warning values of each island city are different. The early warning value of Putuo tourism carrying capacity always ranks first, and Changdao has the worst performance. (3) In accordance with the contribution status of the subsystem to the total system, the Chinese island cities show regional differences in the northern, central, and southern area, showing two forms of pressure cities and pressure-carrying cities. The government can adopt different policies and measures in accordance with different characteristics of human environmental activities.
Highlights
An island is a geographical area that is made up of a small piece of land surrounded by sea areas, while an island city is the ecological, administrative, and economic entities that are made up of a number of islands and surrounding seas
Assessing the early warning tourism carrying capacity is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of island cities
The purpose of this paper is to reveal the tourism carrying capacity of Chinese island cities, the early warning status of the three subsystems of nature, economy, and society, as well as the differences of different island cities, providing scientific references for the development of island cities’ tourism and the formulation of policies
Summary
An island is a geographical area that is made up of a small piece of land surrounded by sea areas, while an island city is the ecological, administrative, and economic entities that are made up of a number of islands and surrounding seas. Island cities are relatively isolated from land and become a special type of regional unit. These special areas are called island counties, which are the most basic administrative area in Chinese urban management. Tourism is the leading industry of island cities. The special ecological environment of island cities means that their industrial development must meet the island’s carrying capacity [4]. The development and evolution of the tourism industry in island cities and their interaction with resources and the environment have become one of the important issues that economic geography is concerned about [5,6]. Assessing the early warning tourism carrying capacity is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of island cities
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