Abstract
In this study, we investigated extreme droughts in the Indochina peninsula and their relationship with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. Areas most vulnerable to drought were analyzed via statistical simulations of the IOD based on historical observations. Results of the long-term trend analysis indicate that areas with increasing spring (March–May) rainfall are mainly distributed along the eastern coast (Vietnam) and the northwestern portions of the Indochina Peninsula (ICP), while Central and Northern Laos and Northern Cambodia have witnessed a reduction in spring rainfall over the past few decades. This trend is similar to that of extreme drought. During positive IOD years, the frequency of extreme droughts was reduced throughout Vietnam and in the southwestern parts of China, while increased drought was observed in Cambodia, Central Laos, and along the coastline adjacent to the Myanmar Sea. Results for negative IOD years were similar to changes observed for positive IOD years; however, the eastern and northern parts of the ICP experienced reduced droughts. In addition, the results of the statistical simulations proposed in this study successfully simulate drought-sensitive areas and evolution patterns of various IOD changes. The results of this study can help improve diagnostic techniques for extreme droughts in the ICP.
Highlights
Since the 1950s, an increase in atmospheric moisture demand and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns due to global warming have contributed to increased aridity in many areas [1,2].drought risk in the twenty-first century, indicated by model-simulated drought indices [3]and soil moisture [4], is expected to increase.Drought is often divided into four types [5]: meteorological or climatological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic
To better anticipate drought-related disasters in Southeast Asia, we studied the Indochina Peninsula (ICP)
The increasing trend in extreme droughts appears across the ICP, except for Vietnam, but this is not statistically significant
Summary
Since the 1950s, an increase in atmospheric moisture demand and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns due to global warming have contributed to increased aridity in many areas [1,2].drought risk in the twenty-first century, indicated by model-simulated drought indices [3]and soil moisture [4], is expected to increase.Drought is often divided into four types [5]: meteorological or climatological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Since the 1950s, an increase in atmospheric moisture demand and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns due to global warming have contributed to increased aridity in many areas [1,2]. Soil moisture [4], is expected to increase. Drought is often divided into four types [5]: meteorological or climatological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Of these four types, we chose to analyze meteorological drought because this type of drought results in water shortages due to reduced rainfall [6]. Le et al [7] attempted to ascertain the relationship between meteorological drought in the Khánh Hòa Province (Vietnam) and climate signals, such as the Southern Oscillation Index and the Bivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time series. Their work shed light on the importance of climate signals of oceanic and
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