Analysis of Drought Potential in Sumba Island until 2040 Caused by Climate Change

Abstract

Climate Change is one of the events that can change climate components due to global warming events. One of the changes in climate components can cause changes in rainfall in an area. While changes in rainfall conditions in an area can cause increased vulnerability of a region to potential of drought. In this research, the effects of climate change on the drought potential in Sumbawa Island region was investigated, where this region is one of the areas prone to drought in Indonesia. Climate projection until 2040 was carried out using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) model with 14 km spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution. While the drought index is calculated by the SPI (Standardize Precipitation Index) method where positive numbers tend to mean wet, lift between -1 to 1 is neutral, and increasingly negative numbers tend to mean dry. It is known that in 2040 January was known that there would be no drought on Sumbawa Island with values ranging from -1 to 2. While in August of 2040, the potential for drought disaster should be watched out. This is because in this month the drought index value ranges from -2.5 to - 2. The potential for drought itself is known to increase in August 5 years until 2040 when compared with 5-year data, 2025 and 2030 in August in the Bima region. Meanwhile, based on time series analysis, it is estimated that there will be some extreme dry conditions, in August 2022, 2024, 2028, 2030, and 2033. Knowing these extreme conditions, it is hoped that this will become the basis for regional planning systems, starting from planning infrastructure and social systems to climate change mitigation and adaptation.