Analysis of driving forces of water demand in Jing-Jin-Ji district in recent years based on water demand field theory

Abstract

In recent years, urbanization has accelerated and the gap between urban water supply and demand has become more significant. This phenomenon has led to greater demands on urban water resource management. Thus, analyses of the forces that drive urban water demand growth can help efficient management of urban water resources. “Jing-Jin-Ji” refers to the district composed of Beijing and Tianjin, municipality as well as Hebei Province, which is among the political and economic centers of China. The traditional analysis of driving force for water resources often consider cities as independent individuals and ignores the interaction between them. Such method cannot describe the spatial distribution of regional water demand. In this study, the water demand field theory is used to construct water demand and social development fields for the Jing-Jin-Ji district with relevant indicators. The distribution trends of the two fields, and the correlation of their intensities, are then analyzed. Principal component analysis is used to specifically determine the forces that drive water demand at different stages of development. Results indicate that the water demand field theory can accurately describe spatial variations in water demand intensity in the study area. The main driving force for water demand in the Jing-Jin-Ji district from 2000 to 2014 is the growth of urban population. However, in 2015 and 2016, “GDP of the tertiary industry” overtook it. The results of this study can serve as a basis for regional water demand forecasting, with large potential to be applied to urban water resource management.