Analysis of driver-injury severity: a comparison between speeding and non-speeding driving crash accounting for temporal and unobserved effects

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the differences between temporal stability of factors influencing driver-injury severities in crashes involving speeding and non-speeding driving using a six-year (2012–2017) crash data in Thailand. With two possible driver injury severity outcomes (no/minor and severe/fatal), random parameter binary logit models, that allow for heterogeneity in means and variances, were estimated to fully account for unobserved heterogeneities (i.e., allow crash-level factors to vary across crashes and to influence random parameter distribution). While most factors were unstable over time, speeding crash models result showed that stable factors decreasing probability of severe/fatal injury were restraint, van, passenger car, pickup truck, running-off-road on straight and hitting guardrail and mounting traffic island; whereas stable factor increasing probability of severe/fatal injury were central/eastern/southern regions. In non-speeding driving crash model, stable factors decreasing probability of severe/fatal injury were restraint, truck, and running-off-road on straight and hitting guardrail; whereas stable factors increasing probability of severe and fatal injury were under influence of alcohol and van. The findings of this research could potentially be utilized to improve highway safety and facilitate the development of more effective crash injury mitigation policies. Practical-related recommendation based on the results is also provided.