Analysis of different electricity generation scenarios in the “Macizo Volcánico del Ruiz” geothermal project

Abstract

Based on preliminary estimates of the geothermal potential of the “Macizo Volcánico del Ruiz”, the performance of twelve hypothetical production wells was projected conceptually. Thirteen scenarios of geothermal electricity generation were simulated to the development of the “Macizo Volcánico del Ruiz” geothermal project, considering different technologies and development approaches (wellhead plant and/or central plant). As the results of these simulations and analysis, a technical overview for each scenario was obtained. This overview served as the input for an economic study, which starts from a common base and varies mainly due to the type of plant and the installed capacity of each turbogenerator. Taking all that into consideration it was possible to estimate the construction cost for the different scenarios as well as the operation & maintenance expenses. Finally, a financial projection was made, along with a sensitivity analysis of the construction time for each scenario, which ends when the total installed capacity comes into operation. The results showed the importance of including wellhead plants, when construction times are long, and the benefits of high enthalpy binary plants are highlighted. Under this perspective, the main contribution of the present work is an early analysis procedure of geothermal projects, which provides a general overview for the selection of the development approach, considering the technologies that are gaining relevance in the industry, such as wellhead systems, that no longer are considered a temporary fix but a long-term solution.