Analysis of development of raw cow milk prices in the conditions of the Slovak Republic

Ivana Váryová,Iveta Košovská,Renáta Krajčí­Rová,Zuzana Poláková,Alexandra Ferenczi Vaňová

doi:10.5219/1196

Ivana Váryová, Iveta Košovská + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.5219/1196

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Abstract

The paper is focused on the evaluation of the price development of raw cow milk in the Slovak Republic. The aim of the paper is to analyse the development of average prices of the raw Q class cow´s milk in 2006 – 2018 and to forecast the trend of these prices by June 2019. Monthly data from the Market Report of Milk and Dairy Products issued by the Agricultural Information Department – ATIS, as part of the Agricultural Paying Agency, were the base of our information resource. These data were analyzed by using the statistical software called SAS. Box-Jenkins methodology was used to model the future trend of average purchase prices of the raw Q class cow´s milk, designed for modeling stationary and non-stationary time series and time series with seasonal components. During the period of 2006 – 2018 the Slovak dairy market showed significant changes in the prices of raw Q class cow´s milk. Three crisis periods of the dairy sector have been identified, during which the milk price has fallen below 0.30 € per kilogram. Long-term low prices of raw cow milk led to the liquidation of primary milk producers. In the next forecast period, by February 2019 a moderate increase in the average purchase price of rawQ class cow´s milk is expected, followed by a decrease by June 2019.

Highlights

Eating food is one of the most important needs of every person (Nagyová et al, 2019)
During the evaluation period 2006 – 2018, three dairy crisis periods can be identified, during which the prices has fallen below 30 eurocents per kilogram of milk
The paper focused on the analysis of the trend of average purchase prices of raw Q class cow milk in Slovakia in the period from 2006 to July 2018

Summary

Introduction

Eating food is one of the most important needs of every person (Nagyová et al, 2019). Raw cows milk represents one of the most important commodities in the agricultural market. European vertical of milk production and processing is influenced by the Common Agricultural Policy. Within the proclaimed single framework of the Common Agricultural Policy, size and level of production, and involvement in various stages of commodity chain, production and processing of milk vary considerably between individual European Union member states. Sectors of milk production and milk processing play an important role in the development of the agrarian sector and global agribusiness in general. The milk quota system, one of the most important instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, was introduced in 1984 to the European Union dairy market, Volume 13

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