Abstract
The development of CAAC began in the early days of 1949. From a comparatively less popular means of transport to the world's second largest by volume, this means of transport has undergone major and minor changes in the last 70 years. It is not known whether there are significant laws in the process of development. For this reason, we analyze the statistical indicators of the development of civil aviation transport and select representative indicators, namely, the total turnover of transport, the number of routes, the number of aircraft, the number of transport aircraft, and the number of domestic city connections. At the same time, the life cycle theory is introduced, and the typical growth curve model is used to fit the data. It is found that the evolution life cycle of civil aviation in China can be divided into three stages: the first life cycle stage from 1950 to 1981, the second from 1982 to 2003, and the third from 2004 to 2017. Each life cycle follows the growth characteristics of occurrence, growth and maturity, and each life cycle has a time range of approximately 30 years. At present, China's civil aviation industry is in the period of rapid growth in the third life cycle. This industry is expected to reach maturity in approximately 2026 and then to begin to grow slowly. Relevant departments can adopt corresponding development strategies to guide the smooth development of civil aviation in accordance with the growth law of the development and evolution life cycle of civil aviation in China.
Highlights
Civil aviation refers to the use of various types of aircraft engaged in all aviation activities other than national defense, police and customs
Civil aviation is primarily divided into two parts: public air transport and general aviation transportation
1) Through the analysis of the evolution data and the growth curve theory, it is concluded that the growth curve model of CAAC conforms to the life cycle form of continuous growth curve
Summary
Civil aviation refers to the use of various types of aircraft engaged in all aviation activities other than national defense, police and customs. The fifth stage is the reform with the key of "the reform of large department system and the acceleration of the comprehensive transportation system" (2008-): To make full use of the interconnection, overall superiority and combination efficiency of various modes of transportation and to form a comprehensive transportation system, the Ministry of Communications and the General Civil Aviation Administration of China are to be established in accordance with the Institutional Reform Plan of the State Council. The main viewpoints on the development and evolution of civil aviation in China are as follows: Li [7] divided the reform and development of China’s civil aviation transport industry into four stages from the perspective of a management system, points out the problems existing in the current system reform, and gives his own suggestions. The study predicts the development trend of civil aviation transportation to provide a reference for managers to guide the planning of civil aviation transportation development
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