Abstract
Most macroeconomic studies predict a decline in final energy demand and the use of natural gas in the heating sector in Europe. In the course of building retrofitting, gas-based heating systems are predominantly replaced by electricity-based solutions. This influences the business models of electricity and especially gas distribution network operators (DNOs), where grid charges tend to rise. The resulting feedback effect could accelerate the decrease of demand and finally lead to the defection of the gas grid—an effect that has been neglected in energy system analysis so far. We present a multi-agent simulation with a rule-based gas and electricity DNO model and a building retrofit optimization model to analyze these interdependencies during the transformation path, focusing on the role of different technical, economic, and regulatory triggers. Our case studies for a real grid area of a German city shows that an interplay of the gas and electricity DNO’s strategy, as well as the building-, heating system-, grid-, and trigger-configuration, determine the decision on the extension, continuation, or defection of the gas grid infrastructure. Finally, strategies for how to reduce the risk of a gas grid defection, which are relevant for DNOs, policy makers, and creators of macro-economic models, are discussed.
Highlights
More than one third of the final energy consumption of European residential buildings is covered by natural gas [1]
We present a multi-agent simulation with a rule-based gas and electricity distribution network operators (DNOs) model and a building retrofit optimization model to analyze these interdependencies during the transformation path, focusing on the role of different technical, economic, and regulatory triggers
We address this issue with a multi-agent simulation (MAS), where the distributed autonomous and independent acting residential building agents interact with the natural gas and electricity grid, each of which is operated by a DNO agent (Figure 1)
Summary
More than one third of the final energy consumption of European residential buildings is covered by natural gas [1]. As a part of the energy costs, grid charges increase the operating costs of gas-bound heating systems, which could accelerate the substitution of those plants This could lead to the defection of the gas grid, despite its predicted future role as a flexibility option [23]. In the face of the predicted decreasing gas demand, we apply these considerations to gas and electricity distribution grids with a high degree of residential buildings, focusing on heating applications In this context, we address four main questions relevant for DNOs, policy makers, and creators of macro-economic models of the energy system:. Bamberg, varying the building heating and system stock for each of them: An analysis of the role of different triggers on the transformation path (Section 4.2); a measurement of the interdependencies between grid costs and building retrofit decisions (Section 4.3); the determination of the impact of different DNO strategic patterns (Section 4.4).
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