Analysis of decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China's provincial capital cities: A Tapio model approach

Abstract

Large amounts of CO2 emissions often accompany economic growth. The decoupling analysis is a common approach to assess how economic growth can be achieved without significant negative environmental impacts and by promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. Cities are essential in mitigating climate change problems and promoting low-carbon living. This study analyzes the relationship between economic development and CO2 emissions in Chinese provincial capitals from 2011 to 2021. The Tapio decoupling model and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model are used to assess this decoupling relationship based on panel CO2 emissions and GDP data. The results show that: (1) CO2 emissions are still growing at a slow pace, but with big fluctuations during 2019–2021 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) Cities have significant differences, with some cities reaching a stable weak decoupling, and others with unstable decoupling. Also, economically developed cities have significant advantages; (3) Economic output is still the main factor inhibiting decoupling. The inhibiting effect of population growth is gradually stabilizing. Results demonstrate that energy technology and economic structure have a great role in promoting decoupling. In conclusion, this study emphasizes the importance of energy efficiency and sustainable development through advanced technologies, economic restructuring, and low-carbon strategies for transition toward climate-resilient urban development.