Abstract
Interactions between humans and carnivores tend to be conflictual, especially due to predation on domestic animals. As certain landscape characteristics predispose the occurrence of carnivore attacks, spatial modelling of predation events can be particularly useful when developing management plans. In this study we determined the incidence of predation on the mortality of domestic animals by interviewing local inhabitants. In addition, we identified the spatial variables that explain the distribution of the conflicts and we created a two–scale model based on the Maxent algorithm. The results showed that Puma concolor (41.2 %) and the foxes Lycalopex gymnocercus and Cerdocyon thous (33.3 %) were the most conflictive species. Predation accounted for only 5.6 % of the causes of domestic animal mortality. The distribution models showed that the most probable variables for predicting conflicts were the distance from the roads, livestock density and the proportion of anthropized areas. High–risk areas represented 28 % of the study area and were distributed in broad patches around the protected areas and in the eastern sector of the area.
Highlights
The expansion of human activities in many ecosystems has decreased the geographic range and populations of numerous carnivores and has led to the fragmentation of their habitats (Morrison et al, 2007; Inskip and Zimmermann, 2009)
A total of 51 inhabitants were surveyed, 35 in 2016 (62.8 % rural inhabitants; 11.4 % park rangers and security; 25.8 % farm employees), and 16 in 2019 (75 % producers and Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) extension workers and 25 % park rangers). These surveys indicated that foxes were the most frequently observed carnivores (78.4 %), but the respondents did not distinguish between the two species present in the area (C. thous and L. gymnocercus)
Through the surveys we found that the mountain lion P. concolor and foxes C. thous and L. gymnocercus were considered the most conflictive species due to attacks on small livestock and poultry
Summary
The expansion of human activities in many ecosystems has decreased the geographic range and populations of numerous carnivores and has led to the fragmentation of their habitats (Morrison et al, 2007; Inskip and Zimmermann, 2009). There are other causes, such as the transmission of diseases, competition for game and direct attacks on humans, the predation of domestic animals is the greatest source of conflict between humans and carnivores, with lethal control being the most common method used to reduce the impact (Inskip and Zimmermann, 2009). Such control can have a devastating effect on the size and distribution of carnivore populations (Treves et al, 2011) and modify ecosystems, since they play an important role in their regulation (Prugh et al, 2009). Surveys can provide valuable information that is often impossible to obtain from other sources at a relatively low cost (Masenga et al, 2017)
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