ANALYSIS OF CO2 ABATEMENT COSTS İN TURKEY USING THE TIMES-MACRO ENERGY MODELİNG SYSTEM

Abstract

Turkey submitted its INDC to the UNFCCC in 2015, through which committed to reach 21% reduction in GHG emissions from the Business-as- Usual scenario by 2030, signed the Paris Agreement in 2016; and ratified in October 2021 after concurring to reach net zero emissions by 2053. It is therefore needed to examine Turkey’s energy sector to understand the leading cause of emissions and elaborate the policy options to reduce emissions. The TIMES-MACRO modeling framework, a hybrid energy system and economic growth model, is employed in this study to evaluate Turkey’s energy sector and CO2 emissions under various emission reduction scenarios together with associated economic implications. The results show that in the absence of scenario constraints, coal dominates the primary energy supply mix, implying that without mitigation measures, emissions will grow rapidly. The abatement costs of emissions vary according to policy, ranging from 45-265 $/ton CO2 by 2050, while the GDP loss range fluctuates between 0.4% and 1.5%.