Analysis of Climate Variability, Perceptions and Coping Strategies of Tanzanian Coastal Forest Dependent Communities

J J Kashaigili,E Liwenga,M V Mdemu,P Levira

doi:10.4236/ajcc.2014.32020

Abstract

Climate variability and change are among the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Like in many other areas globally, the coastal communities of Tanzania have always been facing climatic variability at various time scales. Using focus group discussion and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate variability and change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by the selected coastal rural and peri-urban communities in Tanzania. The perception of climate variability and change is complemented with the time-series analysis of rainfall and temperature data from Julius Nyerere International Airport Met. station and Kisarawe using Instant Statistical Software. Results indicate that households are aware of climate variability and identify indicators of climate change and variability as being decreasing rainfall trends, increasing incidences of droughts, unpredictable rainfall patterns, disappearance of wetlands and failure to predict on-set of rainy season using traditional knowledge. Households primarily attribute reduced crop yields to changes in rainfall pattern and increasing incidences of drought leading to soil moisture stress. The implications are that the agriculture dependent households are now food insecure. As a way of coping to the observed changes, the coastal communities among others have shifted to production of high value horticultural crops and use of forest resources. Nevertheless, the increased use of forest resources is threatening the existence of coastal forests and contributes to the decline of forest resources and disappearance of wildlife in the forest reserves. It is concluded that the communities studied are aware of climate issues as revealed from perceived indicators of climate variability and changes. The results from statistical analysis of 30 years climatic data are consistent with community’s perception of climate variability and change. The study recommends examining the present coping strategies for the sustainability of the coastal forests and in designing of alternative adaptive strategies such as alternative energy options, crop diversification and environmental friendly activities such as beekeeping.

Highlights

Climate change is cited as a complex and interdependent environmental challenge facing the world today [1] [2]
African countries including Tanzania are likely among the most world vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to lack of inadequate adaptation capacities, economic development, and institutional capacity [3]
Perceptions of climate variability and change is complemented with the time-series analysis of annual rainfall, number of rainy days, seasonal rainfall variability and extreme events from thirty years rainfall and temperature for Julius Nyerere International Airport Met. station in Dar es Salaam and Kisarawe using Instant Statistical Software

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is cited as a complex and interdependent environmental challenge facing the world today [1] [2]. African countries including Tanzania are likely among the most world vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to lack of inadequate adaptation capacities, economic development, and institutional capacity [3]. According to Huq et al [4], climate change in sub-Saharan Africa may lead to decreased precipitation in semiarid to arid parts of Africa, leading to vulnerability and food insecurity to most of the communities. The negative impacts associated with climate change are compounded by many factors, including widespread poverty, human diseases, and high population density, which is estimated to double the demand for food, water, and livestock forage within the 30 years [3]. The nature of these biophysical effects and the human responses to them are complex and uncertain [5]

Methods

Results

Conclusion