Analysis of China's wind power development driven by incentive policies based on system dynamics model

Abstract

Under the increasing pressure of mitigating air pollution, wind power has been considered as the leader of China's energy revolution for a long time. Although China's wind power development enjoys a favorable policy environment, it is still impeded by the problem of wind power curtailment and overreliance on price subsidies. First, this paper built a system dynamics model to simulate China's wind power development during 2012–2032 considering both economic and technical factors. Further, sensitivity analyses and scenario analysis are performed to analyze the variation ranges of simulation results of different factor settings. The analysis results indicate that China's wind power might not develop as expected under the current development pattern. Our model allows evaluating the long-term trend and major constraints of China's wind power under the latest incentive policies, thus helping to provide reference for policy-making institutions.