Analysis of China's new energy conservation policy and the provincial decomposition of the energy consumption target

Abstract

To compensate for the limitation of the energy intensity indicator and to constrain energy consumption growth more directly and severely, China had decided to implement the Total Energy Consumption Control (TECC) policy during the 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This paper analyzes the situation of energy consumption in 3 scenarios based on the energy consumption trend during the 11th FYP, the energy intensity reduction target during the 12th FYP, and the TECC policy. The Energy Conservation Comprehensive Evaluation System (ECCES) which includes 5 indicators reflecting energy conservation responsibility and 3 indicators reflecting energy conservation difficulty has been built, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy methods are used to determine the weights of 8 basic indicators. According to the ranking of comprehensive evaluation scores of ECCES, 30 provinces are divided into 5 clusters, which are assigned 3%, 3.5%, 4.2%, 5.5%, and 6.8% of controlled energy consumption growth rate, respectively. By comparing and analyzing energy consumption situations in 3 scenarios, we find that the TECC policy has the strongest constraint effect, and can achieve unification of provincial and national energy conservation goals. The provincial decomposition result of energy consumption controlled target of TECC policy roughly remains consistent with the current economic and energy development layout of China that the provinces in southeast coastal developed areas are assigned lower controlled energy consumption growth rate while the backward inland provinces are assigned higher growth rates.