ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN THE INPUT OUTPUT STRUCTURE OF DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE IN 2016 AND 2024: USING THE DYNAMIC INPUT OUTPUT (DIO) MODEL

Abstract

This study aims to look at the estimated structural changes in the input output table for DKI Jakarta Province in 2024. Estimates for changes in the structure are obtained by making projections of the input-output table for DKI Jakarta Province in 2024 using the Dynamic Input Output (DIO) model, namely by embedding the econometric model into the input output model, using the 2016 based year, 52 economic sectors, and 22 data series from 2000 to 2021.DIO is a hybrid model that places more emphasis on non-survey aspects that combines macro-econometric equations with identity equations in input-output analysis. This model has many dynamic equations consisting of 425 equation model. The parameters value of the equation are estimated using a combination of three estimation methods: (1) Ordinary Least Square, (2) First Order of Autoregressive, and (3) Second Order of Autoregressive. The general balance value in the DIO model is formulated using the Gauss-Seidel iteration "RAS" method.The results of the study show that in 2024 the corporate services sector, the chemical, pharmaceutical and traditional medicine industry sector, and the transportation equipment industry sector are the dominant sectors in shaping changes in the structure of intermediate demand. The Construction Sector, the Corporate Services sector, and the transportation equipment industry sector are the dominant sectors shaping changes in the structure of intermediate input. The construction sector, the real estate sector, and the wholesale and retail trade sector, not cars and motorcycles, are the dominant sectors in shaping changes in the structure of final demand. For the gross value added component, the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector, Not Cars and Motorcycles, the Private Information and Communication sector, and the Financial Intermediary Services sector other than the Central Bank are the largest sectors in the formation of structural changes.