Analysis of carbon neutrality technology path selection in the steel industry under policy incentives

Abstract

As an energy-intensive industry, the steel industry incentivizes carbon neutrality technology innovation through carbon neutrality policies, thereby promoting the industry's low-carbon transformation. However, how policy promotes technological innovation in the steel industry to achieve net zero emissions is an urgent practical and theoretical problem that needs to be solved. This study constructs a comprehensive model that combines steel demand forecasting, technology evaluation, and bottom-up technology selection models. Described the cost-effectiveness of emission reduction technologies from a technical and economic perspective, quantitatively analyzed the emission reduction potential and evolution path of carbon neutrality technology under policy incentives in the steel industry, and provided policy support and specific deployment time for different technologies. The results indicate that under the scenario of strong subsidies and carbon prices, by 2060, the share of traditional long-process steelmaking was only 25 %, and the CO2 emissions per unit of crude steel were 0.88t CO2/t. At the same time, the implementation of policies has increased the cumulative emission reduction of the steel industry by 1.56 times from 2022 to 2060.