Analysis of carbon emission drivers of secondary industries in Energy "Golden Triangle" area based on LMDI and two-dimensional decoupling model.

Abstract

As an essential energy and chemical base in China, carbon reduction in the Energy "Golden Triangle" (EGT) area is significant. This paper used the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze the drivers of carbon emissions from secondary industry energy consumption (CESEC) in EGT from 2005 to 2019 and then used the GM (1,1) method to simulate carbon emissions in 2030. Meanwhile, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development was also analyzed using the two-dimensional decoupling model to test the effectiveness of carbon reduction by the region's government. This paper showed the following: (1) CESEC in the EGT area increased from 1.89×108t to 2.617×108 t; (2) the economic output effect is the main factor influencing carbon emissions in the EGT area, followed by population effect and energy structure effect, while energy intensity effect mitigates carbon emissions; and (3) CESEC will peak at 12.362×108t in 2030, leaving an arduous task on carbon reduction. The two-dimensional decoupling condition between carbon emissions and economic growth in the EGT area is low level-weak decoupling (WD-LE) for 2005-2019. The decoupling condition in Yulin and Ningdong is concentrated in low level-expansion connection (EC-LE) and low level-weak decoupling (WD-LE). Furthermore, Erdos reached high level-expansion negative decoupling (END-HE) condition during 2015-2019. Based on the above findings, a low-carbon development strategy for EGT should consider improving emission reduction technologies for high-carbon energy sources like coal, adjusting the energy consumption structure and seeking government policy support for carbon reduction.