Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the growth trend of car ownership in different cities under the car purchasing restriction policy (CPRP) in China. A Gompertz model is established to forecast the growth of car ownership, and a Logistic regression model is used to analyze the effect of restriction policy on the car-purchasing behavior of residents in the cities without any CPRP. The results indicate that the CPRP slows down the growth of car ownership in cities with a CPRP, but accelerates the increase in the number of cars in cities without any CPRP. Taking Beijing as an example, the arrival of the saturation value in car ownership will be deferred about 11 years under the CPRP. In Huhhot, for example, the CPRP affects the purchasing behavior of urban residents and accelerates the growth of car ownership, but this impact will be gradually weakened over time and related to the degree of convenience of local public transport.
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