Abstract
One important factor in determining beef cattle development policies is knowing the trend model for beef cattle production and population based on a large of data. This research aims to analyze the trend model of beef cattle production and population and predict them. The data collected from 2011 to 2020 consists of the production and population of beef cattle. Data was taken from the West Papua Province Livestock and Animal Health Service. The trend models and prediction data were analyzed using Minitab version 17. The research showed that the contribution of beef cattle production and population in Manokwari to West Papua is 0.251 and 0.354, respectively. The results of the trend model for the production and population of beef cattle are Yt = 1475291- 440243t + 47760t^2 and Yt = 21626-3t-14t^2, respectively. It can be concluded that the growth rate of the beef cattle population and production in Manokwari is -0.364% and 13%, respectively. Based on the model, in 2026 the number of beef cattle in Manokwari started to decline, and vice versa, production increased in 2025.
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