Analysis of baseline circulating tumor cells integrated with PET/CT findings in transplant-ineligible multiple myeloma

Abstract

We aimed to improve prognostic predictors in transplant-ineligible multiple myeloma (TIE-MM) patients by combining baseline circulating clonal tumor cells (CTCs) and positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) findings. The factors associated with prognosis were retrospectively investigated in 126 TIE-MM patients who underwent CTC quantification by multiparameter flow cytometry and PET/CT at the initial presentation. The total lesion glycolysis (TLG) level was calculated using Metavol software. The median percentage of CTC was 0.06% (range, 0%–4.82%), and 54 patients (42.9%) demonstrated high CTC levels. High CTC levels were associated with significantly poorer progression-free survival (PFS, 2-year 43.4% vs. 68.1%, P <0.001) and overall survival (OS, 5-year 39.0% vs. 68.3%, P <0.001). Similarly, high TLG levels significantly worsened the PFS (2-year, 41.2% vs. 67.6%, P = 0.038) and OS (5-year, 37.7% vs. 63.1%, P = 0.019). The multivariate analyses showed that Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) III, high CTC and TLG levels, and complete response were significant prognostic factors for PFS and OS. A novel predictive model was constructed using CTCs, TLG, and R-ISS III. The patients were stratified into three groups according to the number of risk factors, revealing an extremely high-risk group with a 2-year PFS of 0% and a 5-year OS of 20%. Patients without any high-risk features had better prognosis, with a 2-year PFS of 78.6% and a 5-year OS of 79.5%. The combination of CTCs and volumetric assessment of PET/CT at diagnosis augments the existing stratification systems and may pave the way for a risk-adapted treatment approach.