Analysis of Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Information Distribution and Diffusion Methods in the Main Grain Production Areas of China

Kaijie Niu,Lu Zhao,Chuan Liang,Yintang Wang,Qingfang Hu,Shouzheng Jiang,Haiying Yu

doi:10.3390/atmos10120764

Kaijie Niu, Lu Zhao + Show 5 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120764

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Abstract

Accurate assessment of agricultural drought risk is of strategic significance to ensure future grain production security in the main grain production areas of China. Agricultural drought risk assessment is based on drought vulnerability characteristics. In this study, firstly the drought thresholds were redefined by correlation analysis of drought strength based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and drought damage rates, then the information distribution and the two-dimensional normal information diffusion method were employed to establish the vulnerability curve between drought strength and drought damage rates. Finally, provincial drought risks and the conditional probabilities at different drought damage stages were obtained. The results show that the drought vulnerability curve was nonlinear. With the increase of drought strength, drought damage rates increased rapidly at the beginning, and after a small fluctuation locally, they no longer increased significantly and tended to be relative stable. The occurrence probabilities of agricultural drought risk presented great spatial differences, with the characteristics of high in the northern, moderate in the central and southwestern part, and lower in the southeastern provinces in the main grain production areas of China. The analysis of conditional probability showed that Hubei, Henan, and Jiangxi were the provinces most prone to drought-affected risk under the drought-induced condition; while Liaoning, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia were the ones most prone to lost harvest risk under the drought-induced or the drought-affected condition. The results could be used to provide guidance for drought risk management and to formulate appropriate plans by the relevant departments.

Highlights

Being one of the most reported natural disasters of the last decades, drought often causes severe damages to society, the natural ecosystems, and the economy [1,2,3]
The drought disaster threshold S was redefined by the correlation between drought strength calculated by Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different time scales and drought damage rates, which is more applicable to the study area for improving drought risk assessment
We analyzed the linear relationship between provincial agricultural drought risk and meteorological factors in the major grain production areas of China (Figure 9)

Summary

Introduction

Being one of the most reported natural disasters of the last decades, drought often causes severe damages to society, the natural ecosystems, and the economy [1,2,3]. With rapid population growth, increasing water demand, and limited water supplies, drought is doubtlessly becoming more and more severe and frequent [5]. China is a country vulnerable to drought disaster, which is causing an impediment to sustaining the development of the national economy and social stability [6]. As China is a great agricultural country, the impact of droughts on agricultural yields has gained more and more attention in recent years. The Chinese government has indicated that ensuring the country’s food supply is the top priority of all national work, especially in the main grain production areas of China [7].

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