Analysis of Affecting Factors of China's National Debt

Abstract

How to adjust China’s national debt under the background of the new economic normality? Firstly, an empirical analysis was put forward about the impact of government debt on economic growth. Secondly, on the base of theoretical analysis, the paper studied the main factors that influence the scale of treasury bonds in different stages by piece-wise regression based on the data in 1994-2013. The results showed that there is an inverted U relationship between government debt and the GDP, and the main factors of China’s debt are the size of our national debt budget deficit, debt accumulated balance and household savings deposits. Bond issue size is not the bigger the better. The government can adjust the issuance of treasury bonds through the fiscal deficit, the cumulative balance of national debt and residents’ savings deposits. Keywords-National Debt Scale; Economic Growth; Inverted U; New Economic Normality; Debt Risk