Abstract

Information excess allows obtaining the resulting estimate by a variety of relatively simple measuring devices and using a minimally sufficient set of primary measurements. At the same time, the estimated parameters are typically associated with the initially measured estimates on the basis of nonlinear functional equations. Therefore, a direct use of the maximum likelihood method makes it necessary to solve a system of nonlinear equations. The use of the linearization method for nonlinear functional correlations allows obtaining explicitly optimal estimates (in this case, the most plausible ones) of the resulting parameter and the correlation matrix of assessment errors. The problem of an optimal use of assessments provided by the same state vector through different simultaneously applied methods can be solved by a consistent application of the estimates’ filtering algorithm. However, the weight coefficient matrix in the expression for determining the resulting estimate depends on the measured parameter values, and it is not always known a priori. One of the possible methods of obtaining the estimates of the weight coefficients matrix is to calculate direct estimates of error correlation matrices on the basis of independent discrete samples of estimates for the parameter state vector. Analytical expressions were obtained for mathematical expectation and variance of the assessment components of the error correlation matrix for determining the parameter state vector. The study has shown that the assessment accuracy depends both on the accuracy of the measuring devices and the length of the samples’ line taken to determine the error correlation matrix for the parameter evaluation.

Highlights

  • Hazardous factors of emergencies are determined by using monitoring systems at various levels

  • The objective of this research is to develop the existing algorithms of combining redundant information, including the analysis of how precise the direct determination of the weight coefficient matrix (WCM) is if it does not change while using the estimates of error correlation matrices (ECM) for a normally distributed state vector of a parameter received simultaneously by different independent meters

  • The research has resulted in obtaining analytical expressions for mathematical expectation and variance of components in assessing the error correlation matrix used to determine the parameter state vector

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Summary

Introduction

Hazardous factors of emergencies are determined by using monitoring systems at various levels. The results of monitoring are used for early warning and information management so that managerial decisions could be taken in time to make necessary changes in the state and direction of a system, process, or phenomenon. Assessment of signal parameters results in an initial measurement – a surveillance vector. The task of the second phase of measurements is to integrate the first phase results and to formulate the evaluation unit, which is a state vector. The total number of primary measurements (the scope of the surveillance vector) is often redundant, which means that it exceeds the minimum sufficient estimates for the parameter evaluation. The resulting measurement is a statistical problem of evaluating the state vector through using an excess number of primary values that were obtained simultaneously

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