Analysis of 2021 COVID-19 Outbreak and Vaccination in Taiwan Using a Causal Loop Diagram Approach

Abstract

After nearly COVID-19 pandemic-mitigation success of 2020, Taiwan experienced its first major domestic outbreak in mid-May, 2021. Taiwan entered a nation-wide level 3 epidemic warning, one step away from a potential national lockdown, on May 19, 2021. Systems thinking is an effective tool to help policymakers better understand the complex COVID-19 crisis. This chapter applies causal loop diagrams to depict the causal connections among different components of the COVID-19 infection and immunization system in Taiwan, including vaccine shortage and hesitancy, medical health resource, and prevention and control measures responding to the COVID-19 outbreak during 2021. First, we described temporal and spatial characteristics of 2021 outbreak and the implementation of control measures in response to this outbreak from Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center. Then, we used causal loop diagrams to illustrate the relationship between vaccination and infections how changes in one component potentially affecting the status of the immunization system during a COVID-19 outbreak.KeywordsSystem thinkingCOVID-19 pandemicEpidemic managementVaccine hesitancyVaccine shortageVaccine procurementCausal loop diagrams