Analysis methodologies for assessing micro-meteoroids and orbital debris risk to spacecraft

Abstract

Every space system is exposed to the risk of collision with space debris and micro-meteoroids throughout its orbital life. Because of the large collision velocities, debris or meteoroids in the millimetre to centimetre range may cause significant damage to a spacecraft, which can result in potential generation of debris, loss of equipment and mission failure. The current paper deals with the probabilistic risk assessment of spacecraft survivability under micro-meteoroids and orbital debris (MMOD) impact. The typical process to calculate the MMOD induced risk is summarized and the main uncertainties and limitations affecting the assessment are discussed together with a simple example of a MMOD risk assessment performed for the European spaceship automated transfer vehicle. In order to increase the level of accuracy of MMOD risk assessments, improvements are necessary in the following critical areas: failure criteria analysis, project-dedicated hypervelocity impact testing and debris environment models.