Abstract
Escalator-related injuries have become an important issue in daily metro operation. To reduce the probability and severity of escalator-related injuries, this study conducted a probability and severity analysis of escalator-related injuries by using a Bayesian network to identify the risk factors that affect the escalator safety in metro stations. The Bayesian network structure was constructed based on expert knowledge and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, and further modified based on conditional-independence test. Then, 950 escalator-related injuries were used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the Bayesian network with expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm. The results of probability analysis indicate that the most influential factor in four passenger behaviors is failing to stand firm (p = 0.48), followed by carrying out other tasks (p = 0.32), not holding the handrail (p = 0.23), and another passenger’s movement (p = 0.20). Women (p = 0.64) and elderly people (aged 66 years and above, p = 0.48) are more likely to be involved in escalator-related injuries. Riding an escalator with company (p = 0.63) has a relatively high likelihood of resulting in escalator-related injuries. The results from the severity analysis show that head and neck injuries seem to be more serious and are more likely to require an ambulance for treatment. Passengers who suffer from entrapment injury tend to claim for compensation. Severe injuries, as expected, significantly increase the probability of a claim for compensation. These findings could provide valuable references for metro operation corporations to understand the characteristics of escalator-related injuries and develop effective injury prevention measures.
Highlights
The urbanization of China and the rapid development of large cities has caused many urban problems such as traffic congestion and air pollution
Xing et al (2019) analyzed the risk factors of different crowds for metro escalator-related injuries, and the results show that people aged 18–39 are more likely to suffer from escalator injuries when they are not accompanied, while elderly passengers are more likely to be injured because of gradual decline of mental and physical capacities found among the aging [3]
Working hours (0.65) are a significant factor contributing to escalator-related injuries, implying that the large passenger flow during peak hours is not a risk factor for escalator-related injuries
Summary
The urbanization of China and the rapid development of large cities has caused many urban problems such as traffic congestion and air pollution. Metro systems are an important way to improve the efficiency of urban traffic operation, energy conservation, and emission reduction and are the key link to build a high-quality transportation system and implement public transportation priority policy. As of June 2019, a total of 49 cities in China were approved to build urban rail transit, and the metro systems of 39 cities have been put into operation. With an increasing number of new lines. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 481; doi:10.3390/ijerph17020481 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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