Analysis and trends of precipitation lapse rate and extreme indices over north Sikkim eastern Himalayas under CMIP5ESM-2M RCPs experiments

Abstract

This paper draws attention to highlight the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation lapse rate (PLR) and precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) through the mesoscale characterization of Teesta river catchment, which corresponds to north Sikkim eastern Himalayas. A PLR rate is an important variable for the snowmelt runoff models. In a mountainous region, the PLR could be varied from lower elevation parts to high elevation parts. In this study, a PLR was computed by accounting elevation differences, which varies from around 1500m to 7000m. A precipitation variability and extremity were analysed using multiple mathematical functions viz. quantile regression, spatial mean, spatial standard deviation, Mann–Kendall test and Sen's estimation. For this reason, a daily precipitation, in the historical (years 1980–2005) as measured/observed gridded points and projected experiments for the 21st century (years 2006–2100) simulated by CMIP5 ESM-2M model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth System Model 2) employing three different radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), utilized for the research work. The outcomes of this study suggest that a PLR is significantly varied from lower elevation to high elevation parts. The PEI based analysis showed that the extreme high intensity events have been increased significantly, especially after 2040s. The PEI based observations also showed that the numbers of wet days are increased for all the RCPs. The quantile regression plots showed significant increments in the upper and lower quantiles of the various extreme indices. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen's estimation tests clearly indicated significant changing patterns in the frequency and intensity of the precipitation indices across all the sub-basins and RCP scenario in an intra-decadal time series domain. The RCP8.5 showed extremity of the projected outcomes.