Analysis and simulation of SIR model for COVID-19 spreading with the effect of offline learning and vaccination: a case study of Indonesia

Abstract

This research discusses the analysis and simulation of SIR model for COVID-19 spreading with regards to the effect of offline learning and vaccination. The results of the analysis shows that the COVID-19 case in Indonesia is at a stable stage. The SIR model was chosen because it is one of the basic methods in the epidemiological model like COVID-19. The simulation results shows that if offline learning is not enforced but 99% of the students are vaccinated, the rate of spread of COVID-19 slows down and the rate of recovery has increased in just five months. The results also shown that if 50% offline learning is carried out, the basic reproduction number is R0 = 3.3715, which means that a student infected with COVID-19 can infect 11 other people and if 99% offline learning is carried out, the basic reproduction number is obtained R0 = 6.6757, which means that a student infected with COVID-19 can infect 22 other people in Indonesia.